Quote:
‘If you come to a fork in the road, take it.’ Yogi Berra (1925-)
The News:
RBNZ keeps rates unchanged at 2.50% but might cut again because of the strong currency.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP June Industrial Production +2.4% M/M, -23.4% Y/Y, versus +5.7% and –29.5% May.
05:00 JP June Vehicle Production –34.0% Y/Y versus –41.4% May.
07:00 GB July Nationwide House Prices +1.3% M/M, -6.2% Y/Y, versus +0.9% and –9.3% June.
08:30 DE Bundesbank’s Weber testifies in parliament on Hypo Real Estate problems.
08:55 DE July Unemployment (+20k to +60K, Unemployed 8.4% to 8.5%, versus +31K and 8.3% June).
10:00 EZ16 July Business Climate Indicator (-2.9 to –1.9, Consumer –29 to –22, Economic 72.5 to 77, Industry –33 to –27, Services –21 to –16, vs –2.97/-25/73.3/-32/-20 June).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (539K to 630K, Continuing Claims 6100K to 6400K, vs 554K and 6225K prior week).
13:30 CA June Industrial Product Prices (-1.1% to +2.0% M/M, Raw Materials +0.3% to +5.0%, vs –1.1%/+2.2%).
18:00 US/CA auction results of seven and 30-year Treasuries.
00:01 GB July GfK Consumer Confidence (-25 to –15 versus –25 June).
00:30 JP July Tokyo CPI (Mizuho Research Institute –1.7% Y/Y, Ex-Fresh Food –1.7%, vs –1.5% and –1.3% June).
00:30 JP June National CPI (Mizuho Research Institute –1.7% Y/Y, Ex-Fresh Food –1.6%, vs –1.1% and –1.1% May).
00:30 JP June Jobless (Mizuho Research Institute 5.3%, Job-to-Applicant 0.44, versus 5.2% and 0.44 May).
00:30 JP June Household Spending (Mizuho Research Institute +0.1% Y/Y versus +0.3% May).
The Psychology:
Small fears that equity indices may not hold at recent highs.
The Risk:
Treasury markets see sharp intra-day moves yet again.
Today’s most interesting chart: Shanghai Composite Index
Large black candle.
