Quote:
‘Nine-tenths of wisdom consists in being wise in time.’ Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919)
The News:
US Fed’s Yellen says a very slow recovery means rates could stay close to zero for years.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP Q2 Tankan: Large Manufacturers -48, Outlook -30, Non-Manufacturing -29, Outlook -21, All Industry Capex –9.4%, versus –58, -51, -31, -30, -6.6% Q1.
06:00 JP June Vehicle Sales –13.5% versus –19.4% May.
07:00 DE May Retail Sales +0.4% M/M, -2.9% Y/Y, versus +0.5% and revised –0.3% April.
08:00 SE Swedish Riksbank starts a two-day rate-setting meeting (expected unchanged at 0.50%; UBS says –25bp).
08:30 CH June PMI (40 to 42 versus 39.8 May).
09:30 GB June Manufacturing PMI (45 to 48 versus 45.4 May).
10:30 GB auction result of 2.25% 2014 Gilt. German Bund €6B 3.50% 2019.
12:30 US June Challenger Job Cuts (versus +7.4% May).
13:15 US June ADP Employment Change (-280K to –532K versus –532K May).
15:00 US June Manufacturing ISM (40.0 to 47.5, Prices Paid 44 to 48, versus 42.8 and 43.5 May).
15:00 US May Pending Home Sales (-3.0% to +7.0% M/M, Y/Y, versus 6.7% and 3.3% April).
15:00 US May Construction Spending (-1.9% to +0.8% M/M versus +0.8% April).
16:15 US Fed’s Evans speaks on the credit crisis, London.
Late US June Vehicle Sales (versus 9.9M Total and 7.4M Domestic May).
The Psychology:
Holidays in Canada, Egypt, Hong Kong and Thailand.
The Risk:
Mizuho to sell 3B new shares to raise about $7B capital.
Today’s most interesting chart:
Hungarian forint Trying to break below ‘triangle’ consolidatio
