Quote:
‘If one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything.’ Andrew Lo (1960-)
The News:
‘It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink’, says President Obama.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP April Large Retailers’ Sales –6.7% Y/Y, Retail Trade –2.9%, versus revised –8.2% and –3.8% March.
07:00 DE April ILO Unemployment 7.7% vs 7.6% March. 07:15 CH April Trade Balance CH2562M vs 151M March.
08:55 DE May Unemployment Change (+30K to +100K, Unemployed 8.3% to 8.5%, versus +58K and 8.3% April).
10:00 EZ16 May Business Climate Indicator (-3.2 to –2.8, Consumer Confidence –32 to –28, Economic Confidence 67.2to 71, Industry –35 to –31, Services –24 to –21, versus –3.33, -31, 67.2, -35 and –24 April).
11:00 GB May CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades (-20 to 8 versus 3).
13:30 US April Durable Goods Orders (-2.4% to +3.8%, Ex-Transport –3.3% to +1.0%, vs –0.8% and –0.6% March).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (600K to 650K, Continuing Claims 6676K to 6850K, vs 631K and 6662K prior week).
15:00 US April New Home Sales (330K to 400K versus 356K annualised March).
15:15 DE ECB’s Weber speaks on monetary theory and policy, Bodensee.
23:20 US Fed’s Fisher speaks on the economy and fiscal issues, Washington.
00:01 GB May GfK Consumer Confidence (-30 to –23 versus –27 April).
00:30 JP May Tokyo CPI (Mizuho Securities –0.9% Y/Y, April Nationwide –0.3%, versus –0.2% and –0.3%).
00:30 JP April Jobless (Mizuho Securities 4.9%, Job-to-Applicant 0.49, vs 4.8% and 0.52 March).
00:30 JP April Household Spending (Mizuho Securities –0.6% Y/Y versus –0.4% March).
The Psychology:
Israel Pentecost; Dragon Boat holidays today and tomorrow in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The Risk:
US 7-year TNote auction and UK £1.25B 1.25% 2032 Index-Linked Gilt.
Today’s most interesting chart: Benchmark US 10-year TNote yield
Soaring out of control.
