Quote:
‘The point of living in the metropolis is not to earn money: the point is to live in the metropolis…the purpose of wealth is to be able to afford London.’ Simon Jenkins (1943-)
The News:
US Treasury says four (or more) insurers, including Hartford Financial, to get access to TARP funds.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP March Machine Orders –1.3% M/M, -22.2% Y/Y, versus revised +0.6% and –30.1% February.
00:50 JP April Domestic CGPI –0.4% M/M, -3.8% Y/Y, versus revised –0.3% and –2.5% March.
07:00 DE Q1 GDP –3.8% Q/Q, -6.9% Y/Y, versus revised –2.2% and –1.8% Q4.
08:15 CH March Retail Sales (-7.0% to 0% Y/Y versus –3.8% February).
10:00 EZ16 Q1 GDP (-2.5% to –1.5% Q/Q, -4.6% to –3.5% Y/Y, versus –1.6% and –1.5% Q4).
10:00 EZ16 April CPI (+0.3% to +0.4% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y, Core +1.4% to +1.7% Y/Y, vs +0.4%/+0.6%/+1.5% Mar).
13:30 US April CPI (-0.1% to +0.3% M/M, -1.0% to –0.4% Y/Y, versus –0.1% and –0.4% March).
13:30 US April Core CPI (0% to +0.2% M/M, +1.5% to +1.8% Y/Y, versus +0.2% and +1.8% March).
13:30 US May Empire State Manufacturing Survey (-23.2 to –5 versus –14.65 April).
13:30 CA March Manufacturing Shipments (-2.5% to +3.0% M/M versus +2.2% February).
14:00 US March Net Long Term TIC Flows ($10B to $49B versus $22B February).
14:15 US April Industrial Production (-1.5% to +1.0%, Capacity utilisation 66% to 69.5%, vs –1.5% and 69.3% Mar).
14:15 US Fed’s Fisher speaks on the economic outlook, San Antonio.
15:00 US May University of Michigan Confidence Survey (63.0 to 70.5 versus 65.1 April).
The Psychology:
Sallie Mae cut to Ba1 by Moody’s because Obama wants to cut subsidies to lenders.
The Risk:
Watch weekly candles for confirmation of turns in trends.
Today’s most interesting chart: US Five-year TNote future
Testing top of ‘wedge/flag’.
