Quote:
‘I’m going to see a man about a dog, a dog called Smack.’ Frances Barber (1958-)
The News:
WHO warns of ‘flu pandemic as toddler dies in Texas; raises alert to level 5.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
(22:00) NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 2.50%.
00:01 GB April GfK Consumer Confidence –27 versus –30 March. 10:30 auction result of IL 1.875% 2022 Gilt.
00:50 JP March Industrial Production +1.6% M/M, -34.2% Y/Y, versus –9.4% and –38.4% February.
05:00 JP Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged at 0.10%. JP March Vehicle Production –50.0% Y/Y vs –56.2% Feb.
06:00 JP March Housing Starts 0.888M annualised, Construction Orders Y/Y, versus 0.866M and –24.9% February.
07:00 DE March ILO Unemployment 7.6% versus 7.4% February.
07:00 GB April Nationwide House Prices –0.4% M/M, -15.0% Y/Y, versus +0.9% and –15.7% March.
08:55 DE April Unemployment (+40K to +100K, Unemployed 8.1% to 8.4%, versus +69K and 8.1% March).
10:00 EZ16 March Unemployment (8.5% to 8.9% versus 8.5% February). ECB’s Weber speaks, Frankfurt.
10:00 EZ16 April CPI (+0.4% to +1.0% Y/Y versus +0.6% March).
13:30 US Q1 Employment Cost Index (+0.3% to +0.8%, March Core PCE +1.6% to +1.9%, vs +0.5%/+1.8% Q4).
13:30 US March Personal Income (-0.5% to +0.5%, Spending –0.5% to +0.4%, versus –0.2% and +0.2% February).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (630K to 670K, Continuing Claims 6145K to 6300K, vs 640K and 6137K prior week).
13:30 CA February GDP (-0.5% to +0.2% M/M versus –0.7% January).
13:30 CA March Industrial Prices (-0.4% to +1.0% M/M, Raw Materials +0.5% to +3.0%, vs +0.4%/+1.7% Feb).
14:45 US April Chicago Purchasing Managers (30 to 38 vs 31.4 Mar).
The Psychology:
May Day holidays in much of the world tomorrow; holidays Monday in Ireland, Japan, UK et al.
The Risk:
Thin markets cause sudden moves.
Today’s most interesting chart: Benchmark US 30-year Treasury yield
Highest this year.
