Quote:
‘You realise there were certain things you shouldn’t do, but the urge is there and you can’t resist’. David Rubenstein
The News:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 50 basis points to a record low 3.00%; Brazil cuts Selic rate by 150 basis points also to a record low of 11.25%.
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
(23:50) JP final Q4 GDP –3.2% Q/Q, -12.1% Y/Y (fastest contraction since 1979), Deflator +0.7%, versus –3.3%, –12.7% and +0.9%. 09:00 EZ16 March ECB Monthly Report.
10:00 EZ16 January PPI (-1.2% to +0.3% M/M, -0.5% to +1.2% Y/Y, versus –1.3% and +1.8% December).
10:30 GB auction result of £1.1B Index Linked 1.25% 2031 Gilt.
11:00 DE January Industrial Production (-5.0% to –0.7% M/M, -17.3% to –11.1% Y/Y, vs –4.6% and –12.0% Dec).
12:30 US February Retail Sales (-1.5% to +1.0% M/M, Ex-Autos –1.3% to +0.9%, versus +1.0% and +0.9% Jan).
12:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (610K to 660K, Continuing Claims 5100K to 5220K, vs 639K and 5106K prior week).
13:00 CH Swiss National Bank rate decision (most expect the Libor target to drop by 25 basis points to 0.25%).
14:00 US January Business Inventories (-1.5% to –0.6% versus –1.3% December).
14:00 US Treasury’s Geithner testifies at Senate Budget committee on 2010 budget and revenue proposals.
14:00 US Treasury’s Kashkari testifies to House Committee on $700B TARP programme.
17:00 US auction result of 30-year TBonds.
18:30 US Fed’s Braunstein testifies to House Financial Services on mortgage legislation.
The Psychology:
Qatar Sovereign Wealth fund says holding US dollars in the short term, ‘in the long term we don’t know’.
The Risk:
Government bond yields drop a little further this week.
Today’s most interesting chart: Nasdaq future
Rallying to first Fibonacci resistance.
