Quote:
‘Does a one-legged duck swim in circles?’ Rhodri Morgan (1939-)
The News:
China’s Wen Jiabao, facing worst financial crisis in 80 years, vows to maintain 8% GDP growth with $585B stimulus plan.
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
(23:50) JP Q4 Capital Spending –17.3%, Ex-Software –18.1%, versus –13.0% and –13.3% Q3.
03:45 JP auction result of 30-year JGB: average yield 1.941%, stop 1.956%, bid-to-cover 2.50.
07:00 DE January Retail Sales –0.6% M/M, -1.3% Y/Y, versus revised +0.5% and +0.4% December.
10:00 EZ15 Q4 revised GDP (-1.6% to –1.5% Q/Q, -1.3% to –1.2% Y/Y, versus –1.5% and –1.2%).
12:00 GB Bank of England interest rate decision (expect –50 basis points to 0.50%; a few –25 and a few no change).
12:45 EZ16 ECB interest rate decision (unanimously expected –50 basis points to 1.50%); 13:30 News Conference.
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (620K to 680K, Continuing Claims 5100K to 5220K, vs 667K and 5112K prior week).
13:30 US Q4 final Unit Labour Costs (+0.7% to +6.4%, Non-Farm Productivity –0.5% to +3.2%, vs +1.8%/+3.2%).
13:30 CA January Building Permits (-10.0% to –1.5% versus –3.9% December).
15:00 US January Factory Orders (-6.0% to –0.4% versus –3.9% December).
15:00 US Q4 Mortgage delinquencies (versus +6.99% Q3).
15:00 US Treasury’s Geithner testifies before House Budget Committee, Washington.
15:00 US Fed’s Kohn testifies at Senate Banking Committee on aid to AIG, Washington.
17:45 US Fed’s Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook, Atlanta.
The Psychology:
Who and what is next in the line of fire as we continue to flee all potentially risky investments.
The Risk:
Politicians increasingly tempted to interfere with the running of vast swathes of industry because of aid.
Today’s most interesting chart: LME 3-month Copper
Potential ‘rounded bottom’.
