Quote:
‘The hottest love has the coldest end.’ Socrates (469-399 BC)
The News:
South Korea’s vice finance minister denies it is on the brink of a foreign exchange crisis.
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
(23:50) JP December Tertiary Industry Index –1.6% M/M versus revised –1.1% November.
00:30 AU Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes of MPC meeting: global headwinds very strong, bank shares drop.
03:45 JP Auction result of 40-year JGB: highest yield 2.040%; bid-to-cover 4.19.
08:15 CH December Retail Sales (-2.0% to +6.0% versus –1.4% November).
09:30 GB January CPI (-1.3% to –0.7% M/M, +2.4% to +3.0% Y/Y, versus –0.4% and +3.1% December).
09:30 GB December DCLG House Prices (-10.2% to –8.3% Y/Y versus –8.6% November).
10:00 DE February ZEW Sentiment Survey (-33 to –11, Situation –91 to –75, versus –31 and –77.1 January).
10:00 EZ16 February ZEW Sentiment Survey (-30 to –23 versus –30.8 January).
10:00 EZ15 December Trade Balance (-€12B to +€1B versus -€7B November).
13:30 US February Empire Manufacturing Survey (-36.5 to –17.5 versus –22.2 January).
14:00 US December net Long-term TICS flows ($2.9B to $50B versus -$21.7B November).
18:00 US February NAHB Housing Market Index (7 to 9 versus 8 January).
18:00 US Fed’s Bullard speaks to economists, New York.
18:00 GB Bank of England’s Beasley speaks at the London School of Economics.
The Psychology:
The outlook is grim and getting darker.
The Risk:
Another rush into top quality treasury paper.
Today’s most interesting chart: Euro/Polish zloty
Almost its weakest ever as Eastern Europe hit hard; Austrian 10-year Treasuries trade at a record 120 basis points over Bunds.
