Quote:
‘When playing games, be cheerful. Don’t be stubborn, as that causes squabbles. Avoid cheating and fibbing, since it is from these basic habits that more serious flaws develop’. Desiderius Erasmus (1466-1536)
The News:
China declares a ‘level 2’ emergency (‘severe drought rarely seen in history’) in central and northern states; warns wheat harvest will be affected and urges more irrigation.
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
11:00 DE December factory Orders (-6.0% to +0.5% M/M, -26.8% to –17.0% Y/Y, vs –6.0% and –27.2% November).
12:00 GB Bank of England interest rate decision (all say –50 basis points to 1.00% except: Citi and RBC say –100 bp, Morgan Stanley says no change).
12:45 EZ16 ECB interest rate decision (all say unchanged at 2.00% except: Dexia –25 bp to 1.75%); 13:30 Conference.
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (560K to 620K, Continuing Claims 4695K to 4860K, vs 588K and 4776K prior week).
13:30 US Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (-1.0% to +4.0%, Unit Labour Costs –2.4% to +4.5%, vs +1.3% and +2.8% Q3).
13:30 CA December Building Permits (-10.0% to –0.3% M/M versus –11.8% November).
15:00 CA January Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (35 to 43 versus 39.1 December).
15:00 US December Factory Orders (-4.8% to –1.8% versus –4.6% November).
18:00 US Fed’s Bullard speaks on monetary policy tools, Missouri.
19:00 US Fed’s Stern speaks on fiscal policy, Minnesota.
The Psychology:
Stock indices still hovering uneasily around key chart levels.
The Risk:
Treasury auctions in France and Spain.
Today’s most interesting chart: Sterling/Polish zloty
Eastern Europe battered badly.
