Quote:
‘There are no second acts in American lives.’ F. Scott Fitzgerald (1896-1940)
The News:
US FOMC cuts Fed Funds target rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%; also launches swap lines with Brazil, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea worth $30B each. IMF sets up Short-term Liquidity Facility to help emerging market economies
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
07:00 DE September ILO Unemployment 7.1% versus 7.2% August.
07:00 GB October Nationwide House Prices –1.4% M/M, -14.6% Y/Y, versus –1.7% and –12.4% September.
08:55 DE October Change in Unemployment (-21K to +10K, Unemployed 7.5% to 7.6%, vs –29K and 7.6% Sep).
10:00 EZ15 October Business Climate (-1.80 to –0.70, Economic 84.3 to 87, Industry –16 to –13, Services –6 to 0, Consumer –25 to –19, versus –0.79/87.7/-12/0/-19 September). 10:30 GB auction result 4.00% 2016 Gilt.
12:30 CA September Industrial Product Price (-2.0% to +0.1%, Raw Materials –6.5% to –3.0%, vs –0.2% and August).
12:30 US Q3 GDP (-1.8% to +1.2% Q/Q annualised, Price Index +2.9% to +4.9%, versus +2.8% and +1.1% Q1).
12:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (460K to 485K, Continuing Claims 3700K to 3749K, vs 478K and 3720K prior week).
17:00 US Treasury auction result of five-year TNote sale. 19:15 US Fed’s Yellen speaks, Berkley.
23:30 JP September Jobless (4.2% to 4.3%, Job-to-Applicant 0.82 to 0.87, versus 4.2% and 0.86 August).
23:30 JP September Household Spending (-6.0% to –0.5% Y/Y versus –4.0% August).
23:30 JP October Tokyo CPI (+1.1% to +1.7% Y/Y, September Nationwide +1.8% to +2.5%, vs +1.4% and +2.1%).
The Psychology:
De-leveraging and unwinding of the ‘carry trade’ takes a back seat starting a corrective bounce.
The Risk:
October month-end looming and things might get sticky.
Today’s most interesting chart: Euro/Czech koruna
Selling pressure on the koruna easing quickly.
