Quote:
‘Lawyers, hookers, and plumbers are the only people who still charge by the hour’. Matthew Rhodes (2008)
The News:
Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold at 0.50%; semi-annual report; 06:30 News Conference w. governor.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:01 GB April GfK Consumer Confidence -24 versus –19 March, lowest since 1992.
00:30 JP March Jobless 3.8%, Job-to-Applicant 0.95, vs 3.9% and 0.97 Feb. Household Spend –1.6% Y/Y vs 0% Feb.
00:50 JP March Industrial Production –3.1% M/M, -0.4% Y/Y, versus +1.6% and +5.1% February.
06:00 JP March Housing Starts 1.088M, Construction Orders +6.4% Y/Y, vs 1.150M and +18.4% February.
06:00 JP April Small Business Confidence 43.1 versus 46.6 March.
08:55 DE April Unemployment (-50K to +15K, 7.7% to 7.8%, vs –55K and 7.8% Mar). 09:30 CH April KOF (vs 1.54 ).
10:00 EZ15 April CPI (+3.3% to +3.5% Y/Y versus +3.5% March).
10:00 EZ15 April Business Climate Indicator (0.40-0.78, Consumer –14 to –11, Economic 96.5-99.3, vs 0.80/-12/99.6).
10:00 EZ15 March Unemployment (7.0% to 7.1% versus 7.1% February). 12:55 ECB’s Trichet speaks, Aachen.
13:15 US April ADP Employment Change (-115K to +25K versus +8K March).
13:30 US Q1 GDP (-0.8% to +1.5% Y/Y, Employment Cost Index +0.7% to +1.2%, vs +0.6% and +0.8% Q4).
13:30 US Q1 Core PCE (+2.0% to +2.6% versus +2.5% Q4).
13:30 CA February GDP (0% to +0.3% versus +0.6% Jan). March Raw Materials (+0.8% to +4.0% M/M vs +0.5%).
14:45 US April Chicago Purchasing Managers (45 to 50 versus 48.2 March). 15:00 US Quarterly Refunding.
19:15 US FOMC interest rate decision (most expect –25 bp, some –50, 2 no change from 2.25%).
The Psychology:
ECB’s Trichet says Q1 Eurozone growth ‘quite robust’ and probably ‘resilient’ in H1 2008.
The Risk:
Bank of England dove Blanchflower fears a ‘rapid downward spiral in activity’ as house prices drop –1%.
Today’s most interesting chart: Nymex Gasoline
Retreating suddenly from a record high.
