Quote:
‘Ideas pull the trigger, but instinct loads the gun.’ Don Marquis (1878-1937)
The News:
Inflation remains the ‘predominant policy concern’ of the FOMC.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP April M2 Money Supply +1.1% Y/Y, Broad Liquidity +2.6% Y/Y, versus +1.1% and +2.8% March.
06:45 CH Q2 Sentiment 20.0 versus 17.0 Q1.
07:00 JP April Machine Tool Orders +7.2% Y/Y versus +9.7% March.
07:00 DE April Wholesale Price Index +0.8% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y, versus +0.5% and +3.1% March.
08:00 GB April HBOS House Prices (+0.4% to +1.3% M/M, +9.2% to +11.8% 3M-Y/Y vs +1.0% and +11.1% March).
08:00 JP April Economy Watchers’ Survey (Current 49.6 to 51.0, Outlook, versus 50.8 and 51.3 March).
09:30 GB March Industrial Production (+0.1% to +0.8% M/M, -0.3% to +0.4% Y/Y, versus –0.2% and +0.3% Feb).
09:30 GB March Manufacturing Production (+0.1% to +1.0% M/M, +0.5% to +1.6% Y/Y, vs –0.6% and +1.2% Feb).
09:30 GB March Trade Balance (-£7.3B to -£6.5B, Non-EU -£4.3B to -£4.0B, versus -£6.8B and -£4.1B February).
13:30 US April Import Price Index (Mizuho Securities +0.8% M/M versus +1.7% March).
13:30 US March Trade Balance (Mizuho Securities -$60B versus -$58.4B February).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (295K to 335K versus 305K prior week).
13:30 CA March International Trade (+C$3.7B to +C$6.0B versus +C$4.8B February).
13:30 CA March New Housing Price Index (+0.3% to +0.6% M/M versus +0.5% February).
19:00 US April Monthly Budget Statement ($100B to $180B versus $118B March).
The Psychology:
The Bank of England (+50 bp to 5.50%) and the ECB (unchanged at 3.75%) decide on rates.
The Risk:
16:00 US Treasury auctions 30-year TBonds.
Today’s most interesting chart:
Indonesian rupiah Gapping lower after a massive move.
