The appetite for risk improved cautiously ahead of the US open on hopes that negotiations to avoid a budget crisis between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders next week will be fruitful. Certainly, this are only hopes, but at least they might trigger profit taking. The European and commodity currencies open higher after most of them fell on Friday. The yen remains fragile after diving to a 6 ½-month low. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes closed up. The European bourses are up and the US stock markets are higher in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are up as well.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
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China: The house price index improved to 1.1% in October from -1.3% in September.
Japan: The final leading index came in at 91.6 in September, down from the initial estimate of 91.7. The indicator dropped from 93.2 in August. The final coincident index was 91.5, up from 91.2 , and down from 93.5 in the previous month. The lagging index fell to 86.7 from 87.3.
UK: The average asking price for a home fell 2.6% in November climbing 3.5% in October, property tracking website Rightmove said.
Eurozone: Construction output fell in 1.4% in September after rising 0.7% in August.
France: The leading economic index increased to 114.9 in September from 114.2 in August.
Italy: Industrial sales fell -4.2% in September after rising 2.7% in August.
Italy: Industrial orders fell -4.0% in September after rising 0.6% in August.
Today's economic calendar
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US: NAHB housing market index for November
US: Existing home sales for October
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Short since October 19
The December euro opens higher in the US after falling on Friday. The euro had formed a short-term bullish reversal from an over two-month low on November 13. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2797 and the 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2822.
Immediate support is at 1.2720. A short-term pivot low is at 1.2665. Distant support is at 1.2525.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Japanese yen is attempting to stabilize from another 6 ½-mongh low in Asia after plummeting on Wednesday and Thursday. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2255. Further support is at 1.2175.
Initial resistance is at 1.2400. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.2505.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 7
The December pound opens further up, reaching a 1 ½-week high, after rising on Friday and reversing from an over two-month low on Thursday. It trades below the 200-day exponential moving average. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.5961. Further resistance is at 1.6040.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5874. A pivot low is at 1.5822.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Short since October 19
The December Swiss franc is trading slightly higher after recovering from a three-day low on Friday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0631. Distant resistance is at 1.0787.
Initial support is at 1.0540. Further support is at 1.0517 and 1.0413.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 17
The December Canadian dollar opens at a one-week high after recovering from a 3 1/2-month low on Friday. It is capped by the 200-day exponential moving average and trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0022. Further resistance is at 1.0155.
Immediate support is at .9936. Further support is at .9900 and .9855.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Long since October 16
The December Australian dollar opens at a three-day high above the 21-day exponential moving average after reversing from a 3 1/2-week low on Friday. This leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0370. A short-term top is at 1.0446.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0299 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0251. Distant support is at 1.0160.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
