The appetite for risk was divergent on Thursday, when most Europe was closed for All Saints’ Day and New York City struggled to recover from the hurricane ravages. The US data was good at face value ahead of elections, but the revisions confirm that the economy remains weak.
The European currencies made little progress, the yen fell, and commodity currencies advanced. The US stock markets surged, while the gold/oil spread fell.

The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is still slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is short on yen and Canadian dollar, and long European currencies and Australian dollar.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • US: The ADP private sector employment “increased” by 158,000 jobs in October following the sharply downward revision to 114,000 from 162,000 jobs in September.
  • US: Nonfarm productivity expanded 1.9% in the third quarter following the downwardly revised 1.9% in the second quarter.
  • US: Consumer confidence rose to 72.2 in October from 68.4 in September.
  • US: The manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.7 in October from 51.5 in September. 
  • US: The initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 363,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000 (up from 369,000).    
  • US: Construction spending rose 0.6% in September after falling 0.6% in August.  
     


Today's economic calendar

  • Australia: Producer Price Index for the third quarter 

 

EUR – December

Luca Model: Short since October 19        
 
The December euro slipped below 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday after surrendering gains from a four-day high on Wednesday. More information is needed. The euro peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2887. A pivot low is at 1.2813.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3025. Further resistance is at 1.3145. 


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – December

Luca Model: Short since September 28             
 
The December Japanese yen fell for the second day and marked a four-day low. The 21-day exponential moving average capped the rally on Tuesday, when a minor top was formed. It had bottomed at a four-month low on October 26 and had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2444. Further support is at 1.2290.
Initial resistance is at 1.2540. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2614. Further resistance is at 1.2705.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – December

Luca Model: Long since October 31                  

The December pound fell from a two-week high to end little changed on Thursday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6074 and the 55-day exponential moving average at 1.6007. 
Immediate resistance is at 1.6175. Further resistance is at 1.6213. The top of the uptrend is 1.6304.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways

  

CHF – December

Luca Model: Short since October 19  

The December Swiss franc closed little changed around the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday after marking an eight-day high on Wednesday. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0660. Further support is at 1.0580.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0787. The peak of the uptrend is 1.0861.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – December

Luca Model: Short since September 17

The December Canadian dollar rose in an inside range and closed above the 200-day exponential moving average. It marked a fresh an over 2 1/2-month low in early trading. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0043 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0079. Distant resistance is at 1.0240. 
Immediate support is at 0.9953. Further support is at .9900.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

Luca Model: Long since October 16

The December Australian dollar rose to a five-week high on Thursday. The Aussie is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. It has been advancing since June 4. The Aussie bottomed at a one-month low on October 8 and marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A medium-term top is at 1.0442. The top of the uptrend is 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0287. The next support is at 1.0190. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish   
LONG-TERM: Sideways