The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after the European and commodity currencies closed higher and the yen lower on Thursday. The market needs fresh information following two reports of improving US employment that look too good to be true. The Asian stock markets are mixed. Of note, but the DJIA fell for two days and suggests a double top formation.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies.
Overnight
Japan: The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index rose 0.3% in September following the 0.2% increase in August.
Japan: An index measuring tertiary industry activity rose 0.4% following the 0.8% contraction in July.
Today's economic calendar
Eurozone: Industrial production for August
Germany: Wholesale Price Index for September
France: Current account for August
Italy: Consumer Price Index for September
UK: The leading economic index for September
EUR – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December euro was little changed in the Far East after reversing from a ten-day low on Thursday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3000. The next cap is at 1.3080.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2911. The next support is at 1.2850. Distant support is at 1.2775.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The December Japanese yen remains under pressure after sliding aggressively from a nine-day high and closing below the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Immediate support is at 1.2730. Further support is at 1.2685 and 1.2625.
Initial resistance is at 1.2836. An intermediate top is at 1.2922.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Short since September 26
The December pound remains firm after rising on Thursday and falling in the previous three days to a four-week low. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.6077. An intermediate peak is at 1.6269.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5965. Further support is at 1.5865.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December Swiss franc is consolidating after rallying on Thursday from a nine-day low on Wednesday. The franc is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since late July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0747. A pivot high is at 1.0838.
Initial support is at 1.0633. Further support is at 1.0585 and 1.0500.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 17
The December Canadian dollar is marking time after reversed from a one-week low on Thursday. It is now trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0256. A pivot high is at 1.0359.
Immediate support is at 1.0155. Further support is at 1.0100 and .9990.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Australian dollar remains firm after advancing for four days and reaching at a nine-day high on Thursday. It bottomed at a one-month low early on Monday after sliding for most of last week. The Aussie is trading below the trend line rising since July 12 and the 200-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0241. Further resistance is at 1.0365.
Immediate support is at 1.0155. A pivot low is at 1.0077.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
