The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after ending divergently again on Monday. Traders are less inclined to buy risk because renewed concern about the Eurozone peripherals and expected weak earnings for the third quarter in the US. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes are slightly lower.
The short-term outlook for the major currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
- UK: The BRC retail sales monitor improved to 1.50% in September from -0.40% in August.
- UK: The RICS housing price balance improved to -15 in September from -18 in August.
- Japan: The current account showed a surplus of ¥454.7 billion in August, down from ¥625.4 billion in July.
- Japan: Eco watchers survey: outlook / current for September
- Australia: The National Australia Bank's business confidence was flat in September, up from -2 in August.
Today's economic calendar
- France: Trade balance for August
- Italy: Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter
- UK: Industrial production for August
- UK: Trade balance for August
EUR – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December euro consolidated in the Far East after falling on Monday after reaching a two-week high on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3080. The top of the uptrend is 1.3183.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2913. Distant support is at 1.2775.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The December Japanese yen is quiet after advancing to at a three-day high and closing around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2845. An intermediate top is at 1.2922.
Immediate support is at 1.2685. Further support is at 1.2625. A pivot low is at 1.2565.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Short since September 26
The December pound remains on the ropes after dropping to a 3 ½-week low on Monday. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.6010. Further support is at 1.5955 and 1.5865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.6096. Further resistance is at 1.6215. An intermediate high is 1.6269.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December Swiss franc is marking time after slipping on Monday and reaching a two-week high on Friday. The franc is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since late July. `
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0679. Distant support is at 1.0565.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. A pivot high is at 1.0838. Distant resistance is at 1.0950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 17
The December Canadian dollar is consolidating further above the 21-day exponential moving average after spiking to a near two-week high on Friday. It had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0256. A pivot high is at 1.0359.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0179. Further support is at 1.0100 and .9990.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Australian dollar recovered further after bouncing off a one-month low on Monday. It has been sliding for most of last week. The Aussie is trading below the trend line rising since July 12 and the 200-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0200 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0255.
A pivot low is at 1.0077. Further support is at .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
