The financial markets were adverse to risk on Monday amid renewed concern about the Eurozone peripherals and expected weak earnings for the third quarter in the US. Political and economic uncertainty in Greece and Spain continue despite the launch of Eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. 

The foreign currencies ended divergently, but opposite of the way they closed on Friday. The European currencies fell, while the yen and the commodity currencies rose. The US stock markets fell. Gold, oil and silver closed down as well.
The short-term outlook for the major currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • No data

 

Today's economic calendar

  • UK: BRC retail sales monitor for September 
  • UK: RICS housing price balance for September 
  • Japan: Current account for August 
  • Japan: Eco watchers survey: outlook / current for September 
  • Australia: National Australia Bank's business confidence for September 

 

EUR – December

Luca Model: Short since September 20        
 
The December euro fell on Monday after ending off a two-week high on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2904. Distant support is at 1.2775.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3080. The top of the uptrend is 1.3183.  


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – December

Luca Model: Short since September 28             
 
The December Japanese yen advanced to at a three-day high and closed around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2845. An intermediate top is at 1.2922. 
Immediate support is at 1.2685. Further support is at 1.2625. A pivot low is at 1.2565.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – December

Luca Model: Short since September 26                  

The December pound fell to a 3 ½-week low on Monday after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.6010. Further support is at 1.5955 and 1.5865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.610q. Further resistance is at 1.6215. An intermediate high is 1.6269. The top of the uptrend is 1.6304. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – December

Luca Model: Short since September 20  

The December Swiss franc declined on Monday after ending off a two-week high on Friday. The franc is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since late July. `
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0675. Distant support is at 1.0565.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. A pivot high is at 1.0838. Distant resistance is at 1.0950.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – December

Luca Model: Short since September 17

The December Canadian dollar made little progress above the 21-day exponential moving average after spiking to a near two-week high on Friday. It had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0256. A pivot high is at 1.0359.  
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0172. Further support is at 1.0100 and .9990.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

Luca Model: Short since September 28

The oversold December Australian dollar ended off a one-month low on Monday after sliding for most of last week. It is trading below the trend line rising since July 12 and the 200-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie has been advancing since June 4. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0160. The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0200 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0262.   
A pivot low is at 1.0077. Further support is at .9955.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish   
LONG-TERM: Sideways