The appetite for risk was mixed on Wednesday amid mixed US data. Yet, most of the foreign currencies ended lower. The US stock markets made little progress, while oil plunged 4%.
The short-term outlook for most of the major foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
- US: The ADP employment survey showed a drop to 162,000 in September from 201,000 in August.
- US: The ISM service sector rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: AiG Performance of Services Index for September
- Australia: Building permits for August
- Australia: Retail sales for August
EUR – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December euro ended slipped a little on Wednesday after reaching a one-week high on Tuesday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. It is trading back above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2868. Further support is at 1.2775 and 1.2700.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2980. The next cap is 1.3025.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The December Japanese yen, which has been sliding since Friday, slumped further and the fell below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Immediate support is at 1.2705. Further support is at 1.2630.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2801. Further resistance is at 1.2845. An intermediate top is at 1.2922.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Short since September 26
The December pound dropped to a near three-week low and below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
Immediate support is at 1.6010. Further support is at 1.5890.
Initial resistance is at 1.6140. An intermediate high is 1.6269. The top of the uptrend is 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Short since September 20
The December Swiss franc slipped on Wednesday after ending off a one-week high on Tuesday and reversing from a near three-week low on Monday. The franc is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since late July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0649. Further support is at 1.0590, and 1.1500.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0728. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0750. A pivot high is at 1.0838.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 17
The December Canadian dollar fell further to a four-week low and below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had reached a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0075. Further support is at .9990.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0163. Further resistance is at 1.0205. A pivot high is at 1.0359.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Short since September 28
The December Australian dollar sank deeper to a four-week low following the RBA’s rate cut and weak data. It had peaked at a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model went short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0122. A pivot low is at 1.0077.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0204, the 55-day exponential moving average at 1.0268 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0302.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
