The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after most of them fell for at least one day. Profit taking is still kicking in following last week’s gains.  The Asian stock indexes are also making little progress.

The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • Australia: Westpac Leading Index slowed to 0.4% in July from 0.5% in June
  • Japan: The BoJ left interest rates at 0.1%.  
  • Japan: Leading economic index / coincident index for July

 

Today's economic calendar

  • Eurozone: Construction output for July
  • Switzerland: ZEW Survey - expectations for September
  • UK: Bank of England Minutes    

 

EUR – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3        
 
The overbought December euro is quiet after slipping on Tuesday and peaking at a near a four-month high on Monday. It is overbought and trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3025. Further support is at 1.2930. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2893. 
Initial resistance is at 1.3130. A pivot high is at 1.3183. Further resistance is at 1.3250.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – December

Luca Model: Long since August 22             
 
The December Japanese yen edged up to the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average after falling for three days and peaking at a seven-month high on Thursday. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had put in a five-week low on August 17. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.2665. Further support is at 1.2625 and 1.2565.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2757. The next resistance levels are 1.2800 and 1.2850. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways    
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – December

Luca Model: Long since July 19                  

The overbought December pound is consolidating further after advancing in ten of the past eleven days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.6268. Further resistance is at 1.6335.
Immediate support is at 1.6170. The next floor is 1.6070. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6001. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3  

The overbought December Swiss franc is marking time after slipping on Tuesday but still holding near a new high for the uptrend. The franc is testing its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0756. Further support is at 1.0645. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at a distant 1.0594. 
Initial resistance is at 1.0838. Further resistance is at 1.0880 and 1.0960.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – December

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The overbought December Canadian dollar remains under pressure after falling on Monday and spiking to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0210. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0165. 
Immediate resistance is at 1.0290. Friday’s high is 1.0359. Further resistance is at 1.0400 and 1.0460.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

Luca Model: Long since September 7

The overbought December Australian dollar remains under pressure after falling for two days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0326. Further support is at 1.0250 and 1.0190.
Initial resistance is at 1.0430. Friday’s peak is 1.0537. Further resistance is at 1.0575.   

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish   
LONG-TERM: Sideways