The foreign currencies eased in the Far East after hopes about easing in the Eurozone and the US faltered and profit taking kicked in. The Aussie is accelerating losses. The Asian indexes fell.  

The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • Australia: AiG Performance of Services Index for August 
  • Australia: The GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter following the upwardly revised gain of 1.4% in the first quarter.   
  • Australia: The AiG Performance of Services Index fell to 42.4 in August from 46.5 in July.
  • China: HSBC China Services PMI for August 

 

Today's economic calendar

  • Eurozone: Markit PMI composite for August 
  • Eurozone: Retail sales for July
  • France: ILO Unemployment for the second quarter 
  • Italy: Trade balance for July 
  • Switzerland: Consumer Price Index for August 
  • UK: Markit services PMI for August 

 

EUR – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3        
 
The December euro slipped below the 100-day exponential moving average after peaking at a near two-month high on Friday. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2525. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2479. 
The 100-day exponential moving average  resists at 1.2604. Further resistance is at 1.2690.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

 

JPY – December

Luca Model: Long since August 22             
 
The December Japanese yen is quiet after edging lower on Tuesday and rallying on Friday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2729.  A pivot low is at 1.2565. 
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next resistance is at 1.2854.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – December

Luca Model: Long since July 19                  

The December pound slipped in Asia after surging on Friday. It peaked at a three-month high on August 23. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5771. Distant support is at 1.5650.
A medium-term top is at 1.5907.  Further resistance is at 1.5970.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3  

The December Swiss franc fell below the 100-day exponential moving average after peaking near a two-month high on Friday. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24 and has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0403. Further support is at 1.0315.
Initial resistance is at 1.0485. Further resistance is at 1.0546.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish 
LONG-TERM: Bearish

 

CAD – December

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The December Canadian dollar is under mild pressure after recent gains. The 21-day exponential moving average supports the upmove. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0120. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0055. The next floor is at 1.0010.
A pivot high is at 1.0136. Further resistance is at 1.0205.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways     
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

Luca Model: Short since August 27

The December Australian dollar is accelerating losses and fell to a six-week low. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and challenging the 100-day exponential moving average. It’s been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9. 
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at .9980.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0210 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0271.   

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways   
LONG-TERM: Sideways