Market on stand by

The financial were adverse to risk on Monday, as the summer vacations are petering out, but losses were timid. Meanwhile, the markets continue to be looking for further bond buying from both the Fed and the ECB. All of the foreign currencies but the Canadian dollar ended lower. The US stock markets slipped and the gold/oil spread closed higher.

The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long across the board.

Good luck!

Overnight

• No data

Today's economic calendar

• Australia: HIA new home sales for July 

EUR – September

Luca Model: Long since August 3        
 
The September euro made little progress on Monday after falling on Friday and marking a 1 ½-month on Thursday. The euro is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2443 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2399. 
Initial resistance is at 1.2593. Further resistance is at 1.2705.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways         
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish

JPY – September

Luca Model: Long since August 22             
 
The September Japanese yen ended at a three-day low and around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model went long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2668.  Monday’s low is 1.2556. 
Immediate resistance is at 1.2735. The next resistance is at 1.2780 and 1.2854.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

GBP – September

Luca Model: Long since July 19                  

The September pound fell to a three-day low on Monday after sliding from a three-month high since Thursday. The pound broke the top of a symmetrical triangle. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5750. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5717. 
Thursday’s high is 1.5912. Further resistance is at 1.5975 and 1.6085.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways    
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

CHF – September

Luca Model: Long since August 3  

The September Swiss franc remains soft after falling on Friday and marking a 1 ½-month high on Thursday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0365 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0326.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0488. Further resistance is at 1.0590. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways 
LONG-TERM: Bearish

CAD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Canadian dollar ended slightly higher on Monday after rising on Friday. It had marked a four-month high on August 21. It’s been trading in a channel rising since late July. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0110. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0041. A pivot high is at 1.0155.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways   
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

AUD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Australian dollar fell for a third day and closed at a one-month low. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It’s been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9. 
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0294. Further support is at 1.0125.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0416. The next cap is at 1.0523. The top of the uptrend is 1.0578. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish      
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways