The European and commodity currencies consolidated in the Far East after ending little changed on Wednesday. The yen remains under pressure after falling this week. The Asian stock markets are up.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
Overnight
- Australia: Consumer inflation expectation slowed to 2.4% in August to 3.3% in July.
Today's economic calendar
-
Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for July
Switzerland: ZEW Survey - Expectations for August
UK: Retail sales for July
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro continues to mark time around 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2265. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is falling for a third day and reached a one-month low after breaking the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on Wednesday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2635. Further support is at 1.2515.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2690. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2720. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is marking time around the 100-day exponential moving average after falling off a two-week high on Tuesday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5740. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5639. Further support is at 1.5575 and 1.5500.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is quiet just below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday’s low is 1.0042.
Initial resistance is at 1.0280. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar remains firm after surging to a 3 ½-month high on Wednesday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Good resistance is 1.0140. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0055. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is consolidating after bouncing off a near two-week low on Wednesday. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0415. Further support is at 1.0350.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
