The foreign currencies consolidated in Asia after ending divergently on Wednesday. Most of the Asian stock markets advanced. Traders need fresh news after overreacting last week to the lack of central banks’ easing and then getting caught in a short squeeze on Friday.
The short-term outlook is sideways for the European currencies and yen, and slightly bullish for the commodity currencies. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen.
Overnight
Japan: Core machine orders rose 5.6% in June following the 14.8% plunge in May.
China: CPI fell to 1.8% in July from 2.2% in June.
China: PPI fell 2.9% year-on-year in July following a 2.1% decline in June.
Australia: The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2% in July.
Japan: The Bank of Japan announced no change to its monetary policy stance and maintained its view of a return to moderate recovery path. The benchmark uncollateralized overnight call rate was kept steady at 0-0.1%.
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index for July
China: Industrial production for July
China: Retail sales for July
Today's economic calendar
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Eurozone: ECB monthly report
UK: Goods trade balance for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro is marking time after slipping to the low of the week on Wednesday and marking a one-month high on Monday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2323. Further support is 1.2175.
Initial resistance is at 1.2450. Further resistance is at 1.2510.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is edging up after alternating up and down days for seven days. It remains in an inside range. The yen is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
Initial support is at 1.2700. Further support is at 1.2635.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is trading higher after rallying on BoE Governor King’s hint for an interest rate cut on Wednesday. It is challenging the resistance of the 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5681. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5612. Further support is at 1.5570, 1.5500 and 1. 5456.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is consolidating after edging lower on Wednesday and marking a one-month high on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0366. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0264. The next support is at 1.0110. Thursday’s low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is advancing for a fifth day and marking a new three-month high. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0030. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar remains firm after nailing a new high for the uptrend. The Aussie has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0578. Further resistance is at 1.0620.
Initial support is at 1.0490. The next floor is 1.0410.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
