The foreign currencies remain sidelined early Tuesday after the European and commodity currencies soared on Friday. The market needs new impetus after overreacting last week to the lack of central banks’ easing and then surging without much reason on Friday. Most Asia/Pacific stock indexes are up.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen.
Overnight
Australia: The RBA held interest rates at 3.5%.
UK: Retail same-store sales increased by 0.1% in June y-o-y the British Retail Consortium reported.
Today's economic calendar
Germany: Factory orders for June
Switzerland: Unemployment rate for July
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index for July
UK: Industrial production for June
Italy: Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro is consolidating after marking a one-month high on Monday and surging in an inside range on Friday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2450. Further resistance is at 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2310. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is making little progress after rallying in an inside range on Monday and falling to a two-week low on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
Initial support is at 1.2700. Further support is at 1.2635.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound dipped further after ending minor losses on Monday and rallying in an inside range on Friday. It is trading the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.5500. Further support is at 1. 5456.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5700. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The oversold September Swiss franc is seeking direction after marking a one-month high on Monday and rallying on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0366. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
Immediate support is at 1.0255. The next support is at 1.0110. Thursday’s low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is consolidating further after marking a near three-month high on Friday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. Further support is at .9900 and .9785.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar remains firm after marking a new the high for the uptrend. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Nearby resistance is at 1.0555. Further resistance is at 1.0620.
Initial support is at 1.0500. The next floor is 1.0410. Distant support is at 1.0345.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
