The appetite for risk is neutral after soaring on Friday following the stronger-than-expected NFP report. Now that the market had time to digest the data, the foreign currencies open little changed in the US.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen.
Overnight
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Australia: TD securities inflation rose 0.2 percent in July, reversing the 0.2 percent contraction in June.
Japan: The leading economic index fell to 92.6 in June from 95.2 in May.
Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence for August
Today's economic calendar
- No data
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro opens off a one-month high after surging in an inside range on Friday. It is trading back above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2450. Further resistance is at 1.2510.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2300. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is struggling higher after falling to a two-week low on Friday. It is trading around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
Initial support is at 1.2700. Further support is at 1.2635.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is slipping marginally after rallying in an inside range on Friday. It climbed back above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5600. Further support is at 1.5500 and 1. 5456.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5700. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The oversold September Swiss franc is trading off a one-month high after rallying on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0366. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0247. The next support is at 1.0110. Thursday’s low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is trading marginaly lower after marking a near three-month high on Friday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9888. Further support is at .9785.
Immediate resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is firm after marking a new the high for the uptrend by one tick. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Monday’s high is at 1.0542. Further resistance is at 1.0620.
Initial support is at 1.0410. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0320.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
