The appetite for risk remained relatively firm on Thursday on news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel easily won a parliamentary vote on a Eurozone rescue package for Spanish banks despite unease in her centre-right coalition about the rising cost of Europe's debt crisis for German taxpayers.

The foreign currencies extended Wednesday’s pattern, so some European currencies consolidated and the commodity currencies and yen marched higher. The US stock indexes advanced. Gold, oil and silver closed up.

The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • US: The weekly jobless claims jumped to 386,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 352,000 (350,000 originally).
  • US: The Conference Board’s leading economic index fell by 0.3% in June following a revised 0.4% increase in May.
  • US: The Philly Fed’s diffusion index of current activity rose to -12.9 in July from -16.6 in June.
  • US: Existing home sales fell 5.4% to an annual rate of 4.37 million in June from an upwardly revised 4.62 million in May. The national median existing-home price rose 5% to $189,400 in June from $180,300 in May.

 

Today's economic calendar

  • No data

 

EUR – September

Luca Model: Short since May 7        
 
The oversold September consolidated for a second day after a three-day rally. It had hit a two-year low on Thursday. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Friday’s low is 1.2171. Further support is at 1.2150.
Initial resistance is at 1.2327. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2386.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways    
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

 

JPY – September

Luca Model: Long since July 16             
 
The September Japanese yen ended off a one-month high on Thursday after swapping up and down days for three days. It is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2755. Further resistance is at 1.2895.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2621. Distant support is at 1.2490.   

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish  
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish  


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways    
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – September

Luca Model: Long since July 19                  

The September pound closed off a one-month high on Thursday after making little progress on Wednesday. It had advanced for three days and hit an 11-day high on Tuesday. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average has provided support. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1 and is currently approaching the tip of a symmetrical triangle. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.5764. Further resistance is at 1.5895.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at1.5659 and the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average at 1.5594. Further support is at 1.5510 and 1.5450.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways         
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – September

Luca Model: Short since May 2  

The oversold September Swiss franc made little progress on Thursday after slipping on Wednesday and rising in the previous three days. It has apparently bottomed at a 1 1/2-year low on Friday. It trades in an inside range well below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0270. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0322. 
A pivot low is at 1.0142. Further support is at 1.0090.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways 
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways       
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Bearish

 

CAD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Canadian dollar marched higher to a two-month high on Thursday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .9940. The next cap is 1.0015.   
The 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9850 and the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9810. The next floors are .9720 and .9632.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways      
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The overbought September Australian dollar advanced for a fifth day and marked a four-month high on Thursday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.0410. Further resistance is at 1.0525.
Initial support is 1.0315. The next support is 1.0260. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at a distant 1.0135. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways