The foreign currencies remain under pressure in the Far East after the appetite for risk deteriorated late on Wednesday on unwarranted and consequently unmet hopes that the Fed would provide a third round of quantitative easing because of the increasingly sluggish labor market. Meanwhile, no improvement can be realistically envisioned in the dim state of the global markets.
The Asia stock indexes fell.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen.
Overnight
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Australia: Consumer inflation expectation rose 3.3% in July from 3.1% in June.
Australia: Unemployment rate edged up to 5.2% in June from 5.1% in May.
Japan: The BoJ will leave interest rate at 0.1%
Today's economic calendar
France: Consumer Price index in June
EMU: ECB monthly report
EMU: Industrial production in May
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro remained heavy in the Far East after falling in four of the past five days and marking a two-year low on Wednesday. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2172. The next floor is 1.2090.
Initial resistance is at 1.2310. The next cap is 1.2375. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at a distant 1.2454.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since June 21
The September Japanese yen consolidated in Asia after reversing from the high of the month on Wednesday. It is trading back below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
Initial resistance is at 1.2653. Further resistance is at 1.2715.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Short May 15
The September pound was quiet in the Far East after reversing from a four-day high on Wednesday. It fell to a four-week low on Friday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1 and is currently approaching the tip of a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5460. Further support is at 1.5415 and 1.5266.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5569. Distant resistance is at 1.5720.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc remained heavy in Asia after sinking to a new 1 1/2-year low on Wednesday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0140. Further support is at 1.0090.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0280. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at a distant 1.0381.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian barely moved in the Far East after closing near the low of the month and around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average on Wednesday. It peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Thursday. It is trading below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is long.
Initial support is at .9720. The next floor is .9632.
Immediate resistance is at .9845. A pivot high is at .9885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar fell in Asia after ending off the high of the week on Wednesday. It peaked at a two-month high on Thursday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is barely long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0060. The next floor is .9910.
Wednesday’s high is 1.0217. The next cap is 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0325.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
