The foreign currencies consolidated after the European currencies and yen slumped on Thursday. The appetite for risk declined on Thursday after the PBoC and the ECB cut rates. The Asia stock indexes slipped.

The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways with additional downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen.

Good luck!

 

Overnight 

  • Australia: An index measuring the construction industry edged up to 34.8 in June from 34.7 in May, the Australian Industry Group said.     
  • Japan: Leading economic index / coincident index for May 

 

Today's economic calendar

  • Germany: Industrial production for May  
  • Switzerland: Consumer Price Index for June   
  • United Kingdom: Producer Price Index – input/output for June 

 

EUR – September

Luca Model: Short since May 7        
 
The September euro remains soft after falling to a five-week low on Thursday. The euro had bottomed near a two-year low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2365.  A pivot low is 1.2298.
Initial resistance is at 1.2476. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2554.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways 
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – September

Luca Model: Short since June 21             
 
The September Japanese yen remains under pressure after slipping for two days. It is trading below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. A pivot low is at 1.2416.   
Initial resistance is at 1.2580. Further resistance is at 1.2653.
 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – September

Luca Model: Short May 15                  
 
The September pound remains heavy after sinking to a one-week low on Thursday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5480. Further support is at 1 1.5415 and 1.5266.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5605.  Further resistance is at 1.5720.   

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – September

Luca Model: Short since May 2  

The September Swiss franc remains soft after declining to a five-week low on Thursday. It is trading back below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The franc bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.0280. Further support is at 1.0185.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0395. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0465. 


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Canadian is edging lower after falling from a 1 ½-month high on Thursday. It is floating well above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average and just above the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is long.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 0.9815 and the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9772. The next floor is .9700.   
A pivot high is at .9885. Further resistance is at .9935.  


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

 

AUD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Australian dollar edged lower in the Far East after peaking at a two-month high on Thursday. It’s overbought, so the risk is on the downside. It has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model went long.
Initial support is at 1.0155. The next floor is 1.0030. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at a distant 1.0031.   
Immediate resistance is 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0405.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways 
LONG-TERM: Sideways