The appetite for risk remains strong on the first business day of the second quarter in the wake of Friday’s news that the EU politicians unexpectedly tackled the regional debt crisis. The European and commodity currencies open on firm footing in the Far East after surging on Friday. The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • United States: The personal income increased 0.2% in May the same as in April. The disposable income increased by 0.2%.   
  • United States: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index inched up to 52.9 in June from 52.7 in May. 
  • United States: The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was downwardly revised to 73.2 from the mid-month reading of 74.1.
  • Canada: Gross Domestic Product rose 0.3% in April from 0.2% in March.  
  • Canada: Industrial product price was unchanged in May and the raw material price index fell 1% in May after falling 2% in April. 

 

Today's economic calendar

  • China: NBS Manufacturing PMI for June 
  • China: HSBC manufacturing PMI for June 
  • Australia: AiG Performance of Mfg Index for June   
  • Australia: TD securities inflation for June   
  • Japan: Tankan large manufacturing outlook the second quarter     

 

EUR – September

Luca Model: Short since May 7        
 
The September euro opens firmly in the Far East after soaring above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average on Friday. The euro had bottomed near a two-year low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot high is 1.2759. Further resistance is at 1.2900.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2590. Further support is at 1.2530 and 1.2475.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways 
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – September

Luca Model: Short since June 21             
 
The September Japanese yen opens under pressure in Asia after falling on Friday from an eight-day high and below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model went short.
A pivot low is at 1.2416. Further support is at 1.2355. 
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2581. Further resistance is at 1.2653.     
 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – September

Luca Model: Short May 15                  
 
The September pound opens just below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average in the Far East after climbing to an eight-day high on Friday. The pound is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. It had put in a medium-term top at a one-month high on June 20. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
Friday’s high was 1.5713. A pivot high is at 1.5773. 
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average support is at 1.5616.  Further support is at 1.5515.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – September

Luca Model: Short since May 2  

The September Swiss franc opens on strong footing in the Far East after soaring to an eight-day high on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The franc, which has been falling since peaking on May 1, bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0617. Further resistance is at 1.0670.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0497. Further support is at 1.0363.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The September Canadian opens at a 1 ½-month high in Asia after surging on Friday. It moved well above the 21-day moving and just above the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model went long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at .9897. Further resistance is at .9940.  
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9742. The next floor is .9690.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

 

AUD – September

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The overbought September Australian dollar opens at a two-month high in the Far East after surging on Friday. It has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model went long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0220. Further resistance is at 1.0320.
Immediate support is at 1.0140. The next support is 1.0015. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9970.   

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways 
LONG-TERM: Sideways