The appetite for risk worsened ahead of the US open after rebounding unexpectedly in the US on Monday. The impact of the change at the French realm on the Eurozone had yet to be gauged and felt. In another twist of the zone’s peripherals, Spain is preparing a state bail-out of Bankia, the country’s third biggest bank by assets. The European and commodity currencies open lower after reversing sharp early losses on Monday. The European bourses fell and the US stock markets are down in pre-open trading.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Overnight
-
Australia: The trade deficit worsened to -A$1.587 million in March from –A$754 million in February.
Germany: The seasonally adjusted industrial output rose 2.8 percent month-on-month in March following a 0.3 percent decline in February.
United Kingdom: The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors House Price Balance fell to -19 in April from -11 in March.
Today's economic calendar
- Canada: Housing starts for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro opens lower in the US after ending well off a 3 ½-month low on Monday and gapping down on the open in Asia. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it’s oversold.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Monday’s low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
Initial resistance is at 1.3070. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3157.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is consolidating around the 100-day moving average after marking a 2 ½-month high on Monday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2599. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
Immediate support is at 1.2440. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2401.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound opens down in the US after reversing from a 12-day low on Monday. It remains just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6098. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc opens slightly lower in the US after ending well off its worst levels on Monday. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Monday’s low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0951.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar opens down below the 55-day moving average in the US after reversing from a three-week low on Monday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9997. A pivot low is .9933.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0078. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar opens down in the US after being capped by the 200-day moving average in Asia and reversing from a four-month low on Monday. It fell every day of last week. It is trading just below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0065. Further support is at 1.0000 and .9920.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0176. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0257.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
