The foreign currencies futures consolidated quietly in the Far East after falling on Thursday. The Asia/Pacific stock markets marked time, while oil and gold slipped. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish for the European and commodity currencies and sideways bullish for the yen. The medium-term outlook is sideways for the European currencies and the yen and bullish for the commodity currencies. My model is long all of the foreign currencies futures except for the euro and the yen.
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Analysis based on:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004
Overnight:
• Australia: No data
• Japan: No data
Today’s economic calendar:
• Germany: Producer prices for February
• Italy: Industrial orders for January
• UK: No data
EUR- March
Luca Model: Short since March 18 (reversing long since February 26)
The June euro was quiet in the Far East after collapsing on Thursday. It broke the bottom of its rising channel and remains below the 21-day moving average. The short-term outlook slightly bearish but the oversold condition should minimize further weakness today. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model reversed its long position.
Initial support is at 1.3580. This is followed by 1.3515. Distant support lies at 1.3433 from a pivot low.
The 21-day moving average resists at 1.3680. Further resistance is at 1.3740. The next cap is 1.3800.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Bullish (overbought)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY - March
Luca Model: Short since March 5
The June Japanese yen was flat in Asia after closing down on Thursday. It is still trading just below the 21-day moving average. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook remains sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 110.34. Below 109.84, distant support lies at 109.24.
The 21-day moving average caps at 110.99. Above 111.56, distant resistance is at 112.49.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
GBP - March
Luca Model: Long since March 11
The June pound consolidated around the 21-day moving average at 1.5250 in the Far East after closing down on Thursday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5200. The next support is 1.5165.
Initial resistance is 1.5286. The next caps are 1.5323, 1.5412 and 1.5556.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF - March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The June Swiss franc marked time around the 55-day moving average in Asia after closing down on Thursday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at .9397 from the 21-day moving average. The next support follows at .9338 from the bottom of its rising channel.
The 100-day moving average resists at .9519. Further resistance is at .9557 and .9603.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The overbought June Canadian dollar remained under pressure in Asia after closing down on Thursday. It had reached a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish for about half a day, since the loonie has not yet fallen for two consecutive days during its steep rally since February 26. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. Be careful, the loonie is in a steep rising wedge!
Below .9828, further support is at .9776 and .9723 from the 21-day moving average.
Above the high of the uptrend at .9930, further resistance is seen at .9970.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish (overbought)
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish for about half a day
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
AUD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The June Australian dollar made no progress in the Far East after closing down on Thursday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish for about half a day. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at .9104. Below .9030, the 21-day moving average follows at .8999. Distant support is at .8885.
The new high of the uptrend is .9164. Strong resistance follows at .9218. Distant resistance is stacked at .9275.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways (overbought)
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish for about half a day
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
