The foreign currencies futures reversed direction a few hours faster than I expected, as the European and commodity currencies fell and the yen struggled higher in the Far East. The Asia/Pacific stock markets and gold are trading higher, while oil is a tad lower.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish for the European and commodity currencies and bullish for the yen. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the European currencies, sideways for the yen and bullish for the commodity currencies. My model is long all of the foreign currencies futures except for the yen and the pound.
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Good luck!
Cornelius
Analysis based on:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004
Overnight:
• Australia: The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 5.3% in February from January’s downwardly revised rate of 5.2%.
• Japan: The GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down to +0.9% from +1.1% in the preliminary report.
Today’s economic calendar:
• Eurozone: No data
• Switzerland: SNB to leave its 3-Month Libor target rate at 0.25%
• UK: No data
EUR- March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The March euro failed again to break the key resistance of the 21-day moving average and headed lower in the Far East after closing up on Wednesday. Only a close above this average would suggest the end of the triangle and an upgrade of the bearish medium-term outlook. My model is long. The short-term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.3600. Below 1.3520, the low of the downtrend is 1.3433.
The 21-day moving average resists at 1.3670. The next caps are 1.3737 and 1.3800.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY - March
Luca Model: Short since March 5
The March Japanese yen edged higher in Asia from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud after falling to a two-week low on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook remains sideways and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 111.17 from the 21-day moving average. Above 111.56, distant resistance is at 112.49.
Initial support is at 110.51. The next floor is at 110.02 from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud at 110.02. Distant support lies at 109.24.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
GBP - March
Luca Model: Short since March 9
The oversold March pound resumed its decline in the Far East after closing nearly flat on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.4940. Wednesday’s low is 1.4872. Further support is at 1.4778.
Initial resistance is at 1.4990. The next caps are 1.5041, 1.5095 and 1.5174. The 21-day moving average resists at a very distant 1.5279.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF - March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The March Swiss franc slipped but remained around the 21-day moving average at .9335 on Wednesday. It did the same thing on March 3, only to fall the next day. The Swissy remains in a short-term triangle. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, but my model is long.
Initial support is at .9315. Good support is at .9250. Further support is at .9208. The low of the downtrend is .9176.
Immediate resistance is at .9366. This is followed by .9393. Above .9442, distant resistance is at .9525.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The March Canadian dollar edged lower in the Far East after marking a new high of the uptrend. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9730. Further support is at .9697 and .9669. The 21-day moving average supports at .9620.
The high of the uptrend is .9788. Above .9827, distant resistance is seen at .9898.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
AUD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The March Australian dollar fell in Asia on profit taking after rallying to a near two-month high on Wednesday. Check out the free-angle Fibonacci retracement on this chart; the Aussie is advancing within the 38.2%-61.8% channel. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9091. The next floor is at .9050. The 21-day moving average follows at .9005.
Nearby resistance is at .9155. The next cap is .9218. The top of the uptrend is .9275.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
