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14/7/2009 − The Current Market Sentiment

Tue, Jul 14 2009, 06:27 GMT
by Walid Salah El Din

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The rise of the US stocks could cap the greenback appreciation yesterday. The greenback has been boosted recently by the diminishing of the investors' risk appetite and cautiousness by the earning reports releases of the second quarter after dovish consuming data started with June US consumers confidence survey to 49.3 and it was expected to be 57 and ended last week with the release of US July consuming sentiment survey of University of Michigan preliminary reading which came down to 64.6 and it was expected to be 71 which have been read as a new wave of losing trust in the US waited recovery because of this credit crisis. So, yesterday, staving off of this fall is in serious need of better earning reports of the financial sector in the second quarter as the market focusing will be on today's Goldman results and by the end of the week on Citigroup and BofA and if we are to get a weaker performance than what was expected this will renew the pressure on the equity market and the financial sector which have been supported yesterday by Meredith Whitney who referred to buy Goldman sacks stocks which can go up from here 30% upgrading it to buy from neutral. S&P future has reached to 865 by the comments and it could open in the green territory above 880 and it could finish the session up by 2.49% at 901

After the weak UK PPI figures of June last week which have shown a slump of UK PPI output by 1.2% y/y and a declining of the core PPI output monthly by .2%, By God's will, we wait today to see UK CPI of June which is waited to be up monthly by .3% and yearly by 1.8 and the core figure excluding the food and energy to be up by 1.6% as the same as May. The cable was under a continued pressure after May UK Manufacturing productions which were expected to be up by .1% m/m but they have fallen by .5% and the drop of UK Industrial productions by .6% which were expected to be up by .2% m/m. the cable has made not a higher low at 1.6032 above the low of last week which reached 1.5983 below the psychological level at 1.6 and it is not trading above 1.62 eyeing on 1.644 resistance.

The single currency has joined the British pound the same strong performance versus the greenback but it could not break above 1.4 level waiting by god's will, for today July Germane ZEW industrial data which are expected to show an improving of both of the current conditions to -85.8 from -89.7 in June and the economic sentiment to 45.5 from 44.8 in June and EU industrial production of May which is expected to be up monthly by 1.5% after declining in April by .9%.

Finally, Nikkei 225 could get rid of the red today having a green session rising up by 1.97% to 9227 after a dovish closing yesterday just above 9000. The pressure on the stocks markets recently has pushed the Japanese yen up across the broad getting benefits from the unwinding of the carry trades transactions in the favor of the low yielding currencies such as the greenback and the Japanese yen which has an interest rate at just .1% which put double pressure on the Japanese stocks amid disappointing US consuming figures. USDJPY has dipped lower than 92 before getting back up 93.15 trading right now at 93.26.

Best wishes

FX Consultant

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

Published on  Tue, Jul 14 2009, 06:30 GMT