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6/8/2008 − The Current Market Sentiment

Wed, Aug 6 2008, 11:11 GMT
by Walid Salah El Din

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The greenback direction has not got a new from the Fed's assessment which has not come with a new thing. They have affirmed that there are currently upside inflation risks and they are to be moderate and down side growth risks and they are to ease!
But these did not object the greenback pressure across the broad as the decline of oil and commodities prices and the getting back trust in the equity market, while the single currency is still suffering from the weak manufacturing PMI at 47.4 in July after a flash reading at 47.5 and 49.2 in June under 1.56 versus the greenback. The manufacturing data have come after series of weak EU reports like the recent IFO weak figures which have shown a struggling business climate in germane which could effect negatively on the single currency which is already suffering a technical pressure versus the greenback after forming another lower high at 1.575 after 1.5935 and 1.6023 putting technical downside pressure on the pair.
It looks that another hike is getting out of ECB table in this week ECB rate decision meeting tomorrow and it should pay much attention to the growth downside risks. Jean Cluade Trichet has said it clearly after the recent ECB meeting when it has hiked by .25% in the face of the inflation to settle price stability over the medium term when the oil prices were well above 140 by referring to the downside risks currently and the sluggish growth of the second quarter after good data in the first quarter which can tackle further tightening actions in appreciation of the growth down side risk which triggered a profit taken wave after the hike and now it is getting better in US and in my view the ECB can not go tighter than that before a realized improvement in US if it is not a beginning of tightening back again in US which can give a support to the greenback versus the single currency amid the current oil and commodities prices easing.

The cable is still under the pressure of the weak manufacturing CIBS of July which has reached 44.3 well below 50 in the contracting territory. This weak number has come after the recent UK mortgage approvals of June which have came at just 36k and the -36 of the UK retail sales CBI of July which could give enough pressure on the cable to sink below 1.991 as it has reduced the expectation of a new MPC split decision or even if there is a vote for hiking in the face of inflation again, it is hard to have a majority to hike interest rate amid the current decline of the commodities and oil prices which trading for the third week below 130$ a barrel reaching the low of three months below 120$ a barrel today as the serious needs of interest rate cut to spur investments and consuming currently which highlighted again yesterday by the release of the weaker-than-expected UK construction PMI which reached 36.7 in July which is the weakest since the indicator beginning in 1997. These dovish data came along with Halifax reporting of a yearly fall in house prices for more than 10 percent in its monthly report this week.
At this current decline of oil and commidities prices, the inflation risks are easing causing a pressure on the gold versus the greenback to get down below 900$ per once amid the investors getting back trust in the equity market to take risk.
Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

Published on  Wed, Aug 6 2008, 11:14 GMT