While market ranges looked eerily familiar to yesterdays, the end results differed in that after an early decline, the US Dollar came clawing back to respectable levels. Risk was back on the table after the Japanese Tankan survey came in better for a second straight quarter, helping to accentuate the fact that the economy is on firmer footing. Adding to the positive data today was Chinese PMI which rose slightly to 54.3 stronger than the expected 54.0, and a making that four positive months in a row, showing again that the economy is steadily improving.
Early Dollar weakness was noted as EUR/USD broke above 1.4665 early in the session, but slid downhill from there, touching 1.4615 on the lows. GBP/USD touched 1.6010, but quickly saw gains evaporate to 1.5925 on the south side. The AUD/USD, which has benefitted greatly from higher commodities and a growing Chinese economy hit a fresh 14 month high near 0.8858.
The elation was short lived for risk appetite as a combination of lower equities, profit taking and the realization that the Tankan survey was taken when USD/JPY was about 5% higher at 94.50, helped give the Dollar the quick shot in the arm it needed. USD/JPY cruised higher to 90.05 after treading earlier near 89.70, which constituted the biggest yen move in Asia as most yen crosses were looking to end the session flat on the day. After SNB intervention earlier in NY sent the USD/CHF two handles higher, today's gains were modest to say the least, yet meaningful for what is usually a quiet pair in Asia. USD/CHF erased 1.0335 lows to rise above the 1.0380 level as it drifted into the London session.
Tomorrow's session in the US brings a healthy chance of big Dollar moves with Unemployment claims, ISM Manufacturing, Pending Home Sales, and last but certainly not least, FOMC Chairman Bernanke testifying in front of the House Financial Committee.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session) prior expected
| 10/1/2009 | 600 | GE | Retail Sales (MoM) | AUG | 0.70% | 0.20% |
| 10/1/2009 | 600 | GE | Retail Sales (YoY) | AUG | -1.00% | -0.80% |
| 10/1/2009 | 730 | SZ | SVME-Purchasing Managers Index | SEP | 50.2 | 51 |
| 10/1/2009 | 730 | EC | Europe Finance Chiefs, Central Bankers Meet: Informal EcoFin | 1-Oct | ||
| 10/1/2009 | 750 | FR | PMI Manufacturing | SEP F | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| 10/1/2009 | 755 | GE | PMI Manufacturing | SEP F | 49.6 | 49.6 |
| 10/1/2009 | 800 | EC | PMI Manufacturing | SEP F | 49 | 49 |
| 10/1/2009 | 830 | UK | PMI Manufacturing | SEP | 49.7 | 50.2 |
| 10/1/2009 | 830 | UK | Bank of England Releases Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey | 1-Oct | ||
| 10/1/2009 | 900 | EC | Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate | AUG | 9.50% | 9.60% |







