Optimism continued to reign and markets kicked off Monday with a bias towards risk taking. European bourses are flashing green across the board while US marts also look modestly bid ahead of the open. Rates are steady and off just a few beeps from Friday levels. Not much to chew on in terms of data in London trading with the eurozone industrial new orders the only noteworthy release. The number printed a better than expected 3.1% for June after a -0.5% dip the prior month. This helped risk extend and in turn nudged the US dollar lower.

EUR/USD recovered from a 1.4281 low back towards the 1.4330 area ahead of the NY open. Resistance still lurks into the 1.4350/70 and this was a significant hurdle as we closed out last week. Cable rallied smartly as well, running off the 1.6441 low to back above 1.6500 support. The yen crosses were not surprisingly bid as well with EUR/JPY recovering towards 135.70 after testing down to the 135.00 zone overnight. The commodity complex is relatively quiet as oil trades just pennies above the $74 mark. This left both AUD and CAD trading in pretty tight ranges.

Looking ahead to NY now we have a couple of top tier data releases. The typically under the radar Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Canadian retail sales are both due at 830am ET. Should both numbers beat expectations, look for the risk rally to extend. This would likely see EUR/JPY back towards the 136 area while USD/JPY would likely flirt with 95 again. Stay tuned.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prior expected

8/2412:30 GMTCA  Retail Sales MoMJUN  1.20%0.20% 
8/2412:30 GMTCA  Retail Sales Less Autos MoM JUN  0.70%0.40% 
8/2412:30 GMTUS  Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index JUL  -1.8- -