Worse than expected US weekly jobless data failed to dent a rebound in risky assets, as European and US stocks bounced from earlier losses to finish in positive territory for the first time this week.  In currencies, the USD gave up earlier gains and JPY-crosses (carry trades) followed shares higher, as risk-related inter-market correlations continue to hold sway.  EUR/USD recovered from earlier lows around 1.3525 to finish out near 1.3650, while USD/JPY held key support above the 95.00/10 level to close nearer to 95.80.  As a result, EUR/JPY strengthened from lows just below 129.00 and rallied back to end the session just off its highs around 130.70.  Gold waffled in a range of $4 either side around the $925/oz level for most of the session before finishing out around the $926.25 level.  US Treasuries rallied slightly on the day, despite stocks moving higher, as yields fell to 3.089% on the 10-year note.

Weekly US jobless claims data unexpectedly worsened, but many in the market appeared to write it off as stemming from layoffs at a bankrupt US automaker, though the Labor Dept. could not provide an estimate of the impact of such layoffs on the data.  Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 rose to 637K from the prior 605K (expected 610K).  Continuing claims data for the week ending May 2 reached  a new all-time high of 6.560 mio, well above forecasts for an increase to 6.40 mio from the prior 6.358 mio.  US April PPI data was broadly in line with forecasts, as core PPI ex-food and energy rose 0.3% MoM (expected +0.2%), bringing the YoY core PPI rate change to +3.4% (as expected) from the prior +3.8%.  In other news, ECB council member Stark suggested that he saw signs the Eurozone economy was stabilizing, but cautioned against making too much of it as the outlook remains highly uncertain.  Also, SNB directorate member Jordan reiterated that the SNB is actively engaged in its policy of limiting CHF-strength against the EUR, underlining the view the SNB does not desire to see EUR/CHF below 1.5000, though the market reaction has been increasingly subdued to such comments.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) prior expected

  • 5/14/2009  22:45  NZ  Retail Sales (MoM)  MAR  0.20%  - -
  • 5/14/2009  22:45  NZ  Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM)  MAR  -0.10%  - -
  • 5/14/2009  22:45  NZ  Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ)  1Q  -0.60%  - -
  • 5/14/2009  23:50  JN  Machine Orders (MoM)  MAR  1.40%  -4.70%
  • 5/14/2009  23:50  JN  Machine Orders YOY%  MAR  -30.10%  -27.90%
  • 5/14/2009  23:50  JN  Domestic CGPI (MoM)  APR  -0.20%  0.10%
  • 5/14/2009  23:50  JN  Domestic CGPI (YoY)  APR  -2.20%  -3.00%