The NY session was choppy overall with the only real fireworks coming late in the session. US equities managed to eke out a 1.2% rally after being flat for nearly the entire day. The more timely economic data today was better than expected and this eventually caught up in the market. The NY Empire index – the most forward looking of all the indicators released in the NY morning – jumped to -14.7 in April from -36.8 the prior month. This coupled with the pop in the homebuilder index to 14 from 9 had the ''stabilization'' bulls out in force in the latter part of the session. Risk trades in FX were commensurately higher.
The commodity currencies caught some of the bigger moves. USD/CAD sank more than -100 pips and was sitting near the 1.2020/00 crucial support zone. The first attempt into this area saw good buying interest, with the pair subsequently shooting up more than 70 points on the follow. AUD/USD rocketed 100 pips towards 0.7280 and now should find resistance into the week's highs by 0.7330 if the move continues into the Asia session.
EUR/USD was a bit boring, adding about 45 pips towards 1.3220/30. The 100hr lurks at 1.3225 and was like a rock in terms of resistance the entire NY session. Look for a failure to take this level out to potentially elicit a quick spill back below 1.3200 here. The 200hr sits at 1.3274 and should be the next barrier to focus on if we continue to grind higher. The yen crosses likewise saw some uninspiring moves. USD/JPY was near the NY open at 99.30/40 while EUR/JPY added about 30 pips into 131.40/50. If the late day equity rally in US stocks carries over to global stocks, we would expect the yen crosses to follow.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) prior expected
- 4/15 22:30 GMT NZ Publishes Performance of Manufacturing Index
- 4/15 23:01 GMT UK BRC March Retail Sales Monitor
