Risk trades ran for cover in the NY session as a much worse than expected US retail sales report set a pretty dovish tone early on. The S&P dropped more than -2% and closed below the psychologically important 850 level, to boot. Gold could not get up off the ground despite the flight away from risk and the precious metal was sitting down -$4 near 889/890 as the NY session was coming to a close.
The economic data was horrendous out of the US and the retail sales report took the cake. March retail sales dipped -1.1% on the month to an annual rate of -10.6%. The market was expecting a +0.3% increase, so the disappointment here was palpable. Looking through the individual categories paints an even bleaker picture. The only two categories that actually witnessed an increase in retail activity were the staple categories of food and health care. Overall the report threw some cold water on the notion that the worst in the retail space is over.
Most of the FX price action came via the yen crosses and the direction was decidedly lower. USD/JPY sank nearly -90 pips and was sitting just above the 200-day moving average which comes in at 98.94 currently. A close below here should see the pair remain heavy into the Asia session. EUR/JPY collapsed more than -130 pips to 131.10/20 as well. Support here is at the 131 level and it feels like it wants to carve out a bottom now. Below, however, could see a quick spill into 130.30 initially.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) prior expected
- 4/14 23:01 GMT UK RICS House Price Balance MAR -78% -77%
- 4/14 23:15 GMT AU RBA Head of Financial Stability Ellis Speaks
- 4/15 0:30 GMT AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) FEB -0.20% - -
- 4/15 4:30 GMT JN Industrial Production (MoM) FEB F -9.40% - -
- 4/15 4:30 GMT JN Industrial Production (YoY) FEB F -38.40% - -
- 4/15 4:30 GMT JN Capacity Utilization (MoM) FEB F -12.90% - -
