The price action in the NY session continued to be confounding as the approach of month-end keeps things foggy in the marketplace. US equities managed to jump more than +2% on the day, led by a more than 8% surge in the transports space. This feels more and more like a potential rally on profit taking on short positions though. Gold held on in positive terrain despite the rally in stocks and was sitting by 934/935 near the close. US Treasuries were bid on good demand at the 7-year auction. The 10-year yield dropped -5 basis points to 2.74% on the follow. In a clear sign of risk aversion, the 1-month T-bill rate slipped into negative terrain for the first time since December.

US economic data showed no signs of improvement as 4Q GDP was revised down in the final cut to -6.3% from -6.2% prior. The big news here was the massive -16.5% plunge in corporate profits, which was the worst result since 1953. Initial jobless claims printed an elevated 652K in the latest week after a 644K add previously. Meanwhile, continuing claims jumped to 5.56 million from 5.44 prior. Jobless claims remain one of the key metrics that must turn before we can expect any bottom in the US economy and this has yet to happen.

In FX land it was more flight back to the greenback. EUR/USD plunged -90 pips in the session and was sitting just above 1.3500 support. Below sees potential to the 200hr which currently comes in near the 1.3445/40 zone. GBP/USD sank another -120 points after a weak overnight and was sitting by 1.4440/50 near the NY close. The 200hr support here comes in by 1.4400 and below could see 1.4340 in a hurry. The yen crosses also reflected the buck strength with USD/JPY adding 50 pips to 98.80 while EUR/JPY shed a modest -20 points into the 133.50/60 zone.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) prior  expected

  • 3/26 21:45 GMT NZ  GDP QoQ  4Q  -0.40%  -1.10%
  • 3/26 21:45 GMT NZ  Trade Balance  FEB  -187.0M  25.5M
  • 3/26 23:30 GMT JN  Natl CPI YoY  FEB  0.00%  -0.10%
  • 3/26 23:30 GMT JN  Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY  FEB  0.00%  0.00%
  • 3/26 23:50 GMT JN  Retail Trade YoY  FEB  -2.40%  -3.30%
  • 3/26 23:50 GMT JN  Retail Trade MoM SA  FEB  0.60%  -0.60%