The price action remained lackluster in the London session, rounding out a pretty quiet overnight. European bourses were down -0.4% on average at last look while US stock futures are pointing to a better +1.3% jump.
Gold has managed to rally a nice +$8 to 941/942 in an indication that risk aversion still remains prevalent despite the recent surge in global equity marts.

The pound was weaker as economic data continued to deteriorate across the pond. UK retail sales plunged -1.9% in February from an expected -0.4% and a prior +0.8%. This takes the annual run-rate to a dismal +0.4% from +3.8% and the worst since late 1995.
GBP/USD only shed a modest -30 pips to 1.4560/70 while EUR/GBP was about 30 points higher near the 0.9320/25 area.

EUR/USD edged 20 points higher near 1.3570/80 and found good resistance near 1.3610/20 – now where the hourly trendline barrier comes in. The yen was weak across the board with USD/JPY adding 30 pips by 98.30/40 while EUR/JPY jumped a more aggressive 60 points to the 133.50/60 zone.

The NY session now sees some top tier economic data that should elicit some decent price action. US initial jobless claims are the highlight at 830am ET and are expected to rise to 650K from a prior 646K. A worse than expected result here could nip the US equity market rally in bud and send FX risk trades running for cover. In other words, we would look for a weaker EUR and a stronger USD and higher Gold on much worse claims numbers. Stay tuned!

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prior expected

  • 3/26 12:30 GMT US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q F -6.20% -6.60%

  • 3/26 12:30 GMT US Personal Consumption 4Q -4.30% -4.40%

  • 3/26 12:30 GMT US Initial Jobless Claims 21-Mar 646K 650K

  • 3/26 12:30 GMT US Continuing Claims 14-Mar 5473K 5458K

  • 3/26 13:00 GMT EC Belgium's Reynders on Panel at European Business Summit

  • 3/26 13:25 GMT US Fed's Lacker Speaks to Students at College of Charleston

  • 3/26 14:00 GMT US Geithner Testifies to House Financial Panel on Regulation

  • 3/26 16:00 GMT US Fed's Fisher Speaks on Current Economic Crisis

  • 3/26 16:30 GMT US Fed's Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook

  • 3/26 17:00 GMT US Fed's Stern Speaks in Minneapolis on Too Big to Fail