Trading in the London session has been lukewarm to say the least as the markets await the pivotal US nonfarm payroll report at 830am ET. The buck was mixed against the majors after taking a massive beating overnight. The lack of any noteworthy economic data reports added to the lull. US equity futures are reflective of the range-bound attitude and are currently pointing to a pretty flat open.
EUR/USD traded about -20 pips lower in the session and is sitting near the 1.2670 area ahead of the NY open. Look for weakness to open up below 1.2650 next and a potential run higher if we break back over 1.27 here.
The yen crosses were lower as global equity marts remained in the red. USD/JPY shed -30 pips to just above the 97 mark. The 96.30 level looks important as this was the trigger to the move up through 98 back in late February. Below opens up potential to 95.50 hourly trendline support. EUR/JPY shed -55 pips and was sitting near 123 currently. The 122.30 support level held initially but back below there would target the week's lows by 121.70 next.
In terms of this morning's number, we look for February headline nonfarm payrolls to decline by a steeper than expected -685K (consensus at -650K) and the unemployment rate to match the market estimate, rising to 7.9% from 7.6% prior. Our trading strategy is in EUR/USD, where we expect the pair to mirror the price action in previous NFP releases - essentially looking for a reversal in the initial knee-jerk move. See our NFP write-up for more details. Good luck!
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est
-
3/6 13:30 GMT US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls FEB -598K -650K
-
3/6 13:30 GMT US Unemployment Rate FEB 7.60% 7.90%
-
3/6 13:30 GMT US Average Hourly Earnings MoM FEB 0.30% 0.20%
-
3/6 13:30 GMT US Average Hourly Earnings YoY FEB 3.90% 3.80%
-
3/6 13:30 GMT US Average Weekly Hours FEB 33.3 33.3
-
3/6 15:00 GMT US Fed's Plosser Speaks on the Financial System
-
3/6 16:15 GMT US Fed's Dudley Speaks on Financial Market Turmoil
-
3/6 20:00 GMT US Consumer Credit JAN -$6.6B -$5.0B
