Risk taking reemerged in London trading as news that China is contemplating a new stimulus package saw shares rocket higher. European bourses are up nearly +2.0% across the board while futures in the US are suggesting the first up day in at least five sessions. US Treasuries are currently being shunned with the 10-year yield up about +9bps to 2.96% in early NY.

FX traded with a modest risk taking tone.
EUR/USD added about 35 pips and was sitting near 1.2540 ahead of the NY open.
The yen crosses saw a bit more price action on the back of the global stock market rally.
USD/JPY jumped about 45 pips to 99.30 while EUR/JPY was nearly 100 points higher by the 124.50 zone. GBP/USD nudged about 50 pips higher to 1.4100 as PMI services came in a touch better than expected at 43.2 from 42.5 prior.

US economic data and more testimony from Treasury Secretary Geithner have the potential to see the stock market rally unwind as we head into the NY session now. ADP employment is expected to decline -630K from -522K and a steeper than expected drop here will offer a somber warning for Friday's nonfarm payrolls. ISM services index is up shortly after and the employment component here will also be closely watched for signs of what will come out of NFP. Geithner will testify on the budget again, this time before the Senate, and the reminder of trillion dollar deficits for the foreseeable future should be anything but positive for risk.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est

  • 3/4 13:15 GMT US ADP Employment Change FEB -522K -620K

  • 3/4 15:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manf. Composite FEB 42.9 41

  • 3/4 15:30 GMT US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 27-Feb 717K - -

  • 3/4 15:30 GMT US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 27-Feb -3322K - -

  • 3/4 17:00 GMT US Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook

  • 3/4 19:00 GMT US Fed's Beige Book 5-Mar