Poor economic data across the pond led European bourses lower overnight and put a bid under the FX risk aversion trades on the follow. Euro-zone retail sales disappointed for October as they fell by twice what was expected at -0.8% for the month.
Meanwhile, the UK PMI services index printed a weaker than expected 40.1 in November and down from an already paltry 42.4 the prior month. European stocks were down about -1% at last check as a consequence.

EUR/USD trended about -45 pips lower in the session and was sitting near the 1.2650 zone ahead of the NY open. The 1.2600 level held the downside and looks like vital short-term support here while the 1.2750 mark looks like the trigger for upside. EUR/JPY weakness was also prevalent as the pair sank -55 points into the 117.90/95 area. The 117.00/116.50 range looks like a decent support area here and we would expect weakness to accelerate below there.

Looking ahead to the NY session now, the markets will be focused on the US ADP employment report, ISM nonmanufacturing and the Fed's Beige Book. The ADP is expected to print a pretty horrendous -205K and a result below this lowball level should see the flight to safe assets speed up. S&P 500 futures are currently down about -1.5% and we would look for poor economic data to see a significant giveback to yesterday's 4% gains.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate

  • 12/03 13:15 GMT US ADP Employment Change NOV

  • 12/03 13:30 GMT US Nonfarm Productivity 3Q F 1.10% 0.90%

  • 12/03 13:30 GMT US Unit Labor Costs 3Q F 3.60% 3.60%

  • 12/03 15:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manf. Composite NOV 44.4 42

  • 12/03 15:35 GMT US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 28-Nov - - - -

  • 12/03 15:35 GMT US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 28-Nov - - - -

  • 12/03 15:35 GMT US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 28-Nov - - - -

  • 12/03 16:00 GMT SZ SNB's Roth Holds Speech in Vezia, Switzerland 3-Dec

  • 12/03 17:30 GMT US Fed's Lacker to Speak on Economy 3-Dec

  • 12/03 19:00 GMT US Fed's Beige Book 3-Dec

  • 12/03 20:00 GMT NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 4-Dec 6.50% 5.00%