The NY session saw all of the action come in the closing hours once again and the flavor was a flight to risk aversion. US stocks plunged more than -6% on the day in broad terms as the FOMC meeting minutes downgraded the economic outlook materially. The Fed now sees unemployment above 7% and economic growth near 0% for 2009. Risk trades in FX were pared accordingly.
EUR/USD slipped -140 pips in the session towards the 1.2490/95 zone. USD/JPY shed roughly -90 points to 95.70 and EUR/JPY plunged about -150 pips and was sitting near 119.50 at the close. The focus for EUR/JPY remains lower while below 120.00 here. We would expect this trend to continue as we head into the Asia session, with a decline in stocks there ushering in fresh weakness in EUR and JPY crosses.
USD/CAD surged more than 200 points in NY trading as oil prices continued to collapse. Much higher than expected weekly builds in gasoline and oil stockpiles pressured crude down towards the $53.00/bbl mark. This helped USD/CAD, which has been lagging behind the move lower in oil of late, into a close near the 1.2540/50 area. The recent oil price decline suggests the pair should be closer to the 1.30/1.35 zone.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) Prior Estimate
- 11/19/2008 23:50 GMT JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total OCT ¥95.1B ¥71.8B
- 11/19/2008 23:50 GMT JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. OCT -¥33.0B ¥75.5B
- 11/20/2008 0:30 GMT AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn OCT A$407M - -
- 11/20/2008 4:00 GMT JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
