US equities managed a last minute rally which saw stocks reverse more than 4% from the intraday lows and close up about 1% for the day. This helped to keep risk trades in FX land mostly above water in the NY session. USD/JPY rose about 70 points to a close near 97.00 while EUR/JPY witnessed a similar increase into the 122.30 zone. This left EUR/USD pretty much unchanged overall near 1.2620 after a pretty eventful trading session which saw the pair range about 130 pips. We expect the risk appetite to continue into the Asia session, where a rally in stocks should usher in higher JPY crosses.
Economic data out of the US continued to look bleak and this was highlighted by another plunge in the NAHB homebuilder index for November. The headline slipped to a record low 9 after a 14 result the prior month. Perhaps most disconcerting was the decline in prospective buyer traffic which was decimated to a meek 7 after an 11 print previously. This suggests no bottom in sight for the beleaguered US housing market and a delay to the US economic recovery (which most expect in mid 2009). This speaks to continued pressure on risk assets going into year-end and is likely to keep JPY crosses and other FX risk trades quite heavy.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) Prior Estimate
- 11/18/2008 23:30 AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) SEP -0.10% - -
- 11/18/2008 23:50 JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) SEP -1.80% -0.10%
- 11/19/2008 3:50 AU Assistant RBA Governor Edey Gives Speech in Sydney
