London Session

Market Session Recaps

The buck gave back some overnight gains in London trading despite poor economic data out of the Euro-zone and the continued move away from risk trades. German GDP was the highlight and it came in below expectations at a paltry -0.5% for 3Q. Meanwhile, global stock markets looked weak with Asia down more than -5% and European bourses barely keeping their head above water here. Despite this, EUR/USD was bid more than 165 points towards the 1.2580/90 zone ahead of the NY open.

Risk aversion was not evident in the JPY crosses either as these rallied. USD/JPY was up more than 50 pips near 96.00/10 while EUR/JPY saw a more sizeable 225 point increase towards the 120.90/95 area. Decent earnings from a major US retailer helped reverse previously negative US stock futures, but top-tier economic data this morning has the potential to do some damage on this front.

US initial jobless claims and trade are due up at 1330GMT. The market expects claims to come in at 480K from a similar print the prior week. We would expect a reading closer to 500K will provide some ''headline shock'' and help stocks back into negative territory. Trade will also be important as investors try to gauge the impact to US exports from the stronger dollar over the last few months. This should set the tone for the equity market and overall risk trades in NY today.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate

11/13/2008 13:30 GMT CA Int'l Merchandise Trade SEP C$5.8 C$5.0
11/13/2008 13:30 GMT US Trade Balance SEP -$59.1B -$57.0B
11/13/2008 13:30 GMT US Initial Jobless Claims 8-Nov 481K - -
11/13/2008 13:30 GMT US Continuing Claims 1-Nov 3843K - -
11/13/2008 15:00 GMT GE ECB's Weber Speaks at Event in Frankfurt 13-Nov
11/13/2008 16:00 GMT US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 7-Nov 1206K - -
11/13/2008 16:00 GMT US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 7-Nov 1123K - -
11/13/2008 16:00 GMT US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 7-Nov 1787 - -
11/13/2008 17:00 GMT US Philadelphia Fed's Plosser to Speak on Economy in Pittsburgh 13-Nov
11/13/2008 17:00 GMT EC ECB's Quaden Speaks at a Conference in Mons, Belgium 13-Nov
11/13/2008 19:00 GMT US Monthly Budget Statement OCT -$56.8B -$89.0B
11/13/2008 19:00 GMT US Minneapolis Fed's Stern Speaks in Winona, Minnesota 13-Nov

Published On Thu, Nov 13 2008, 13:27 GMT

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