The London session was very tame and saw the USD move slightly higher against most of the majors. In terms of economic data, the pleasant surprise was the better than expected German ZEW reading which came in at -53.5 in November after a -63.0 print the prior month. German wholesale prices came in much lower than expected at -1.5% for October after a -0.6% decline previously. While the ZEW improved, it remains well in the dumps and suggests economic activity in Germany is likely to remain quite tepid. The lower inflation readings meanwhile throw some cold water on the ECB's assessment that inflation remains a problem in the short term.
Yesterday's US stock market weakness carried over into global marts as Asia and Europe shed a little more than -3%. EUR/USD slipped despite the better than expected economic data as this was outweighed by the shunning of risk trades. The pair slipped about -20 pips in London trading and was sitting near 1.2700/05 just ahead of the NY open. The 1.2700 mark still looks like a good trigger for downside here, but we likely need to see through 1.2650 for weakness to really accelerate.
US stock futures suggest the market open will be pretty ugly this morning, on the heels of some pretty sharp declines in yesterday's session. Look for JPY crosses to remain heavy. USD/JPY should find support near 97.50 while the EUR/JPY trigger looks be near 123.80 next. The lack of economic data coupled with the US bond market close due to the Veteran's Day holiday should have everyone focused exclusively on stocks today. Expect equities to provide direction.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate
- 11/11/2008 15:00 GMT US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism NOV 41.1 - -
- 11/11/2008 20:00 GMT NZ Reserve Bank Financial Stability Report 11-Nov
