The US Dollar took a break this session after a hectic week that saw the Greenback make some record weekly gains. With the Rescue Bill on deck for a vote in the House of Representatives on Friday in the US, as well as NFP, the markets were pretty calm as they await the results of these potentially big market movers. EUR/USD actually moved higher this session after a week of being driven lower. The pair opened the day in Japan at 1.3815 and after an early low of 1.3772, made its way up a big figure to around 1.3880 as London saw daybreak. The Euro was gaining back a little lost ground from yesterday's comments by the ECB's Trichet, who raised the expectations of a rate cut somewhere in the near future. The ECB President's recent dovish turn as well as a rash of fears over the probability of the Euro Zone to be ill-equipped to act in the fashion of the US if need be paint a gloomy picture for Europe's single currency. EUR/JPY touched a low of 144.52, territory not seen in almost two years as traders cut out risk.
USD/JPY rebounded nicely this session to 105.40 after hitting 104.85 early on. The Yen has become a favorite of those looking for risk aversion as they bail out of carry trades, and commodities. The BoJ's trade weighted index of the Yen shows that it was up about 4.4% last month.
As traders abandoned ship from commodities in leiu of the global slowdown and potential recessions in Europe and the US, the Aussie dollar was abandoned as well in NY, but bounced a bit in Asia. After hitting a 14 month low in NY trading, the pair regained some strength at 0.7710 to break above 0.7800 as the session moved on. It is expected that the RBA will cut rates at next week's meeting.
All in all, this was a dynamic week for the Dollar, and tomorrow should be the grand finale with the Rescue Bill's possible passage through the House and the NFP data as well....enjoy the weekend.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):
- 10/3/2008 5:45 SZ CPI (YoY) SEP 2.90% 2.70%
- 10/3/2008 7:50 FR PMI Services SEP F 50.4 50.4
- 10/3/2008 7:55 GE PMI Services SEP F 49.3 49.3
- 10/3/2008 8:00 EC PMI Services SEP F 48.2 48.2
- 10/3/2008 8:00 EC PMI Composite SEP F 47 47
- 10/3/2008 8:30 UK PMI Services SEP 49.2 48
- 10/3/2008 8:30 UK BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal 2Q £5.0B £2.5B
- 10/3/2008 9:00 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) AUG -0.40% 0.10%
- 10/3/2008 9:00 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) AUG -2.80% -2.40%
