Poor economic data results out of the Euro-zone helped the buck extend gains against the common currency.  German wholesale prices fell -1.8% in August after jumping 1.4% the prior month, while  the unemployment rate there rose to 7.3% in June from 6.6% previously.  Adding to the employment woes, French nonfarm payroll growth was revised down to -0.2% from -0.1% for 2Q.  Thus the lower inflation coupled with slowing economic activity story continues to play out in the Euro-zone.

If this trend continues, the ECB will be hard pressed to keep pounding then table on inflation and thus be left without a justification to leave rates high.  We still believe the next move by the ECB is likely to be lower.  And for anyone expecting a rebound in Euro-zone growth in 3Q, the ECB's Papademos came out overnight noting that the risk of a decline in economic growth in the third quarter cannot be excluded.

EUR/USD managed to slip below the 1.39 mark but closed the session roughly -20 pips lower near the 1.3945 mark.  GBP/USD was roughly unchanged in London trading, closing near 1.7505 as the lack of any news made for rather lackluster price action.  USD/CAD traded mostly sideways, making a high near 1.0770 before closing near 1.0740 as oil prices remained under pressure, with the $100 mark still very much within striking distance.

Equity markets overseas traded lower with Asia slipping about -2% and Europe currently down about -1%.  This helped nudge JPY crosses lower.  EUR/JPY shed about -100 pips in the span, closing near the 148.90 mark.  USD/JPY meanwhile slipped a less impressive -55 points to close near the 106.80 area.  Watch US jobless claims data (1230GMT) to help dictate the pace for US stocks and look for commensurate reaction in JPY crosses.


Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session):

  • 9/11  12:30 GMT CA Int'l Merchandise Trade JUL C$5.8 C$5.7
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT CA New Housing Price Index MoM JUL 0.10% - -
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT US Trade Balance JUL -$56.8B -$58.0B
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT US Import Price Index (MoM) AUG 1.70% -1.50%
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT US Import Price Index (YoY) AUG 21.60% 20.20%
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT US Initial Jobless Claims 6-Sep 444K 438K
  • 9/11  12:30 GMT US Continuing Claims 30-Aug 3435K - -
  • 9/11  13:45 GMT GE Germany's Steinbrueck Speaks at Conference in Frankfurt
  • 9/11  18:00 GMT US Monthly Budget Statement AUG -$117.0B -$104.0B
  • 9/11  18:00 GMT FR ECB's Trichet Speaks in Nice
  • 9/11  18:45 GMT US Fed's Kohn Comments on Financial Regulation at Brookings